EvacuAid: probabilistic evacuation model to determine expected loss of life for different strategies for mass evacuation

Evacuation has the potential to save lives, but could be costly in time, money, and credibility. Evacuation is a possible measure in case of a threat for flooding. Different types of evacuation can be distinguished as preventive evacuation, vertical evacuation to safe havens or shelters or shelter in place. The consequences in terms of loss of life depends on the required time related to the type of evacuation and characteristics of the area and the available time for evacuation. Available literature mainly addresses the possibility for preventive evacuation and how to improve this. Recent literature addresses the need to do research and to develop model to get more insight in different types of evacuation to reduce loss of life in situation in situation with limited available time for preventive evacuation. This paper describes the probabilistic evacuation model “EvacuAid” that determines the expected value and bandwidth for the success and loss of life of evacuation strategies based on four parameters (including taking into account the impact of uncertainties): the available time, behavior of people, the behavior of authorities and the available infrastructure and recourses. EvacuAId is developed to get more insight in the effectiveness of different types of evacuations. The model is used for a case study in the Netherlands. It is shown that for large scale areas vertical evacuation is expected to result in less loss of life then vertical evacuation For smaller areas the critical window of time can be defined when vertical evacuation results in less loss of life then other types of evacuation. Also the consequences of less or more optimal conditions as citizens response, decision making or availability of road infrastructure can be defined.